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(May 2, 2008) ALAMEDA, Calif. — Technology Forecasters Inc. (TFI) issued a mid-year update to its five-year growth predictions for electronics manufacturing, with the actual 2007 data replacing estimates. TFI revised downward the forecasts for total available market (TAM) and EMS sector growth, and revised upward the forecast for ODM sector growth.
The economic drivers signal clearly that the U.S. is in a recession, with no sightline to its end point, noted Bill Roberts in TFI's blog. Matt Chanoff, TFI senior economist and the report's issuing author, agrees. Housing market issues and high energy prices worsened since TFI's last update, including the housing market's international fallout. Higher food prices also contribute to economic weakness and consumer apathy toward electronic goods.
Chanoff advises cautious inventory management and aggressive global reach for electronics companies. TFI's revised average five-year growth rates, based on actual instead of estimated 2007 data, are as follows: TAM 6.1%, down from the 7.1% estimate in September; EMS growth rate, 11.2%, down from 13%; and ODM growth rate 18.5%, up from 11.9%.
With these revisions, TFI's forecast of a TAM of $1,241 billion in 2007 is downgraded to $1,166 billion, a 1% dip. TFI revised total outsourcing for 2007 from $276 billion to $292 billion, or 6% higher.
These numbers are based on actual 2007 year-end data from OEMs, EMS providers, and ODMs, and update the projected figures in TFI's September report, "EMS and ODM Manufacturing 2006-2011: Drivers, Market Sectors, and Geographies." The update only looks at the aggregate market, with no mid-year update to market segment or regional breakdowns. To read the September information, see TFI Predicts About 11% Moderate Growth for EMS/ODM.
For more about TFI, visit www.techforecasters.com.
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