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(December 1, 2008) LOS ALTOS, Calif. — Modest PC prospects are forecast for 2009, according to the Henderson Forecast Summary from Henderson Ventures. The analyst firm also sees falling average selling prices (ASPs) as one reason for shrinking computer revenues in 2009.
Despite deteriorating economic conditions, Q'03 2008 world PC shipments grew by 14.8% compared to the third quarter of 2007, Henderson reports. Strong demand in developing countries and the continuing transition to laptop computers fueled this increase. However, Henderson predicts that the full force of the credit crunch will pound down fourth-quarter demand worldwide. As a result, global unit shipments growth will decelerate from 14.7% in 2007 to 10.8% in 2008. Severe regional recessions during 2009 will constrain PC markets to only a 3.8% gain next year, reports Henderson.
Without WiMax, and, especially, netbooks, unit growth rates would be negative during 2009. An economic rebound, along with reinvigorated replacement cycles and technological advancements such as USB 3.0, will help create a 13.6% jump in PC shipments during 2010.
The combination of small unit PC gains, along with declining average sale prices (ASPs), will create a financial downdraft for computer equipment manufacturers next year, notes Henderson. World production values will fall by 2.3% after a 5.2% gain this year. With the exception of China, all the major computer-manufacturing regions will experience negative growth in 2009. US output will fall by 6.2% next year, followed by a muted 4.1% advance in 2010. China will achieve only a 2.2% gain next year, followed by a 12.7% burst in 2010, concluded the analyst firm.
For more information, visit www.hendersonventures.com.
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